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We surveyed 342 Capital on Tap customers after the Autumn Budget announcement in October 2026. 51.5% expect their business to be worse off. 33.3% named the minimum wage rise as having the biggest impact, about 3 times the share of any other measure. In response, 42.4% plan to raise prices and 32.8% plan to cut costs.
How do small businesses expect the Budget to affect them?
Just over half of the small business owners we surveyed (51.5%) expect their business to be worse off after the Budget. Only 10.2% expect to be better off. Among those who expect to be worse off, 38.6% expect to be much worse off.
|
Response |
Share |
|---|---|
|
Much better off |
5.0% |
|
Slightly better off |
5.3% |
|
No real difference |
33.0% |
|
Slightly worse off |
31.6% |
|
Much worse off |
19.9% |
|
Don't know |
5.3% |
Which Budget announcement will have the biggest impact?
33.3% of the people we surveyed named the minimum wage rise as the announcement with the biggest impact. 11.1% named higher tax on savings and property income, the next highest. Respondents could choose only one announcement.
|
Budget announcement |
Share |
|---|---|
|
Minimum wage rises |
33.3% |
|
Higher tax on savings and property income |
11.1% |
|
Business rates changes |
8.8% |
|
Fuel duty changes |
8.5% |
|
Tax admin changes (for example e-invoicing, and paying VAT and PAYE by Direct Debit) |
7.0% |
|
Capital gains tax changes for business owners |
6.7% |
|
Other announcements (capital allowances, mileage allowance, VAT changes, import tariffs, and other) |
10.8% |
|
None of these |
7.0% |
|
Don't know |
6.7% |
For context, the National Living Wage, the minimum wage rate for workers aged 21 and over, rises 3.9% to £13.21 an hour from 1 April 2027.
The UK’s minimum wage has also risen quickly by international standards. The Centre for Cities, a research charity, found that it has risen faster than in any other G7 country, particularly since 2015. You can read more in its report, Pay check: The minimum wage in British cities.
What do small businesses plan to do in response?
The survey asked what they were likely to do in the next 6 months. The most common response is to raise prices, with 42.4% planning to do so. 27.2% plan to put investment or growth on hold, and only 3.5% expect to invest or grow more than planned.
|
Planned action |
Share |
|---|---|
|
Raise prices |
42.4% |
|
Cut costs (for example staff, hours, or suppliers) |
32.8% |
|
Put investment or growth plans on hold |
27.2% |
|
No change to our plans |
22.8% |
|
Rely more on borrowing to manage cash flow |
12.0% |
|
Invest or grow more than planned |
3.5% |
Respondents could select more than one action, so the shares add up to more than 100%.
What did small business owners tell the Chancellor?
We asked what they would tell the Chancellor about running a small business right now. Most respondents answered, and we grouped their answers by theme. These are the most common, as a share of those who answered.
-
Tax burden: 19.2% said the overall tax take is too high. These included calls to cut Corporation Tax and concern about reduced capital gains relief for business owners who sell.
-
Employment costs: 14.4% said employer National Insurance, minimum wage rises, and day-one sick pay make hiring harder. Some owners said they no longer take on young or first-job staff.
-
Criticism of government: 13.4% expressed frustration that recent policy is hurting small businesses.
-
Government out of touch: 12.3% said policymakers lack hands-on experience of running a business.
-
General difficulty: 12.3% said trading conditions are tough right now.
-
Calls for support: 12.0% asked for small firms to be recognised as a core part of the economy and given practical help.
One answer can cover more than one theme, so the shares add up to more than 100%.
The bottom line
The small business owners we surveyed are cautious about the Budget. More than half expect to be worse off, and the minimum wage rise was the announcement named most often as having the biggest impact. Many plan to raise prices or cut costs, and few expect to invest or grow more than planned.
Sources and methodology
The survey covers Capital on Tap customers only. It shows what these 342 small business owners think, not what all UK small businesses think.
-
Who took part: 342 Capital on Tap customers
-
When: 29 October 2026 to 2 November 2026
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Questions: 3 closed questions and 1 open question
-
Rounding: Shares are rounded to 1 decimal place, so some totals may not add up exactly
-
Multiple answers: Respondents could select more than one action in the question on planned responses
This article reports survey findings for information only and isn't financial or tax advice. Speak to an accountant or financial adviser about your own circumstances.
